Atlantic hurricane season on track to be first without a hurricane

For the first time in more than 30 years, a hurricane has not formed in the Atlantic throughout September. This marks the latest date on record since the start of the satellite era in the 1960s where no hurricane has formed in the North Atlantic. There were, however, four named tropical storms that formed in September: Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo and Hanna. All but Edouard stayed out in the open waters of the Atlantic.

El Niño's suppressing effect

The Atlantic hurricane season was predicted to be quieter than normal as a result of a very strong El Niño. Forecasters at Colorado State University suggest the strong El Niño is likely to disrupt wind patterns across the Atlantic. They said it would "likely result in below-normal activity over the next two weeks."

While El Niño is the natural warming of the tropical Pacific, it can disrupt weather patterns around the globe. As wind patterns shift during an El Niño, upper winds over the Atlantic increase. This leads to more wind shear, where wind changes rapidly with height. Strong winds blowing at different speeds and directions at higher altitudes rip apart thunderstorms. This prevents them from growing into tropical storms or hurricanes.

Meanwhile, the Pacific typically becomes more active during El Niño. Sea surface temperatures here are much higher, combined with more favourable wind patterns. This year, temperature records have already been broken in a key region of the central-eastern Pacific. Daily sea surface temperatures now exceed the previous record set during the very strong El Niño of 2015. The biggest reason for this is El Niño, which traditionally stifles activity in the Atlantic but brings a very active season in the eastern North Pacific.

Season outlook and statistics

September is typically the most active month for tropical storm and hurricane activity. With just two months left of the defined hurricane season, there is an increasing possibility that no hurricanes will develop at all. This would make the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season the only one in the satellite era without a hurricane.

In the historical Atlantic hurricane database, there has not been a year without a hurricane recorded since 1914. However, this was pre-satellite monitoring so it is impossible to say with certainty that none formed. The National Hurricane Center suggests there is no sign of any tropical storm activity or hurricane over the next week at least. As the typical peak of the season has passed and is now on a downward trend until 30 November, a season without a single hurricane is looking increasingly possible.

El Niño is predicted to continue to strengthen with forecasts suggesting it will reach its peak in November or December. With a very strong El Niño forecast, the US National Hurricane Center in May predicted a total of eight to 14 named storms. The prediction for those named storms was as follows:

For the amount of energy these storms have produced - known as the Accumulated Cyclone Energy - this season is around two and half times more active than normal at this point. The warmer waters give storms more energy to grow into tropical storms and hurricanes. There have so far been 17 named storms in the basin including nine hurricanes, seven of which were major. The season closes on 30 November with the possibility of a historic first in the satellite era.