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Understanding forecasts

Understanding forecasts on Wind and Warning: How a forecast is made, ECMWF, GFS, UKV and the differences, Ensembles and probability and Why forecasts change.

A rapidly intensifying Super El Niño in the tropical Pacific is pushing forecasts into historic territory for 2026-2027
Understanding forecasts

Super El Niño Strengthens, Forecasts Reach Record Levels

A rapidly intensifying Super El Niño in the tropical Pacific is pushing forecasts into historic territory for 2026-2027. Record-level westerly wind bursts and a powerful subsurface Kelvin wave are fueling surface warming, while seasonal models predict significant impacts across the United States, Canada and Europe.

25 Aug 2026
England and Wales experienced their driest July on record, with minimal rainfall leading to extreme dryness and high...
Understanding forecasts

England and Wales Record Driest July as Dry Spell Persists

England and Wales experienced their driest July on record, with minimal rainfall leading to extreme dryness and high temperatures. Forecasts suggest little relief in sight for southern England, while a potential tropical disturbance in the Atlantic could bring heavy rain to the Lesser Antilles. Meanwhile, India faces severe monsoon flooding and lightning-related fatalities.

16 Aug 2026