El Niño to bring wetter, warmer autumn to UK
The Met Office forecasts a wetter and warmer-than-normal autumn for the UK, driven by a strengthening El Niño event.
The UK is set for a wetter and warmer-than-normal autumn, according to the latest seasonal forecasts from the Met Office. This shift is primarily driven by a strengthening El Niño climate phenomenon, which is expected to peak as a historic event in November or December.
A wetter outlook for late autumn and into winter will bring some relief to parched regions of the country. However, the Environment Agency's National Drought Group stated that drought recovery is a long process, only concluding once reservoirs, rivers, and groundwater supplies return to normal levels.
Stormier conditions expected from November
The strengthening El Niño is forecast to increase the chances of wet and windy weather, particularly from November. Met Office Chief Meteorologist Ian Lisk said the latest forecasts suggest an increased likelihood of wetter-than-average conditions, which aligns with the historical influence of El Niño events. He cautioned that while this event may become one of the strongest on record, it does not automatically mean more severe impacts for the UK.
El Niño is just one of several factors that could affect the UK's weather this season.
Risk of flooding from weather whiplash
While the anticipated rainfall will be welcome for drought-stricken areas, it raises the possibility of another round of "weather whiplash." This term describes a pattern where conditions swing rapidly from one extreme to another. A similar scenario occurred in 2025 when a summer of record-breaking heat was followed by autumn storms and floods.
The potential for wetter weather could therefore lead to an increased chance of flooding across parts of the UK.
Warmer temperatures influenced by seas
Autumn is also predicted to be warmer than normal. This follows a summer in 2026 that was provisionally declared the hottest on record, featuring five widespread heatwaves and 40 days where temperatures exceeded 30C (86F). The forecast for a warmer autumn is consistent with global warming trends.
Unusually high sea surface temperatures around the UK, which have risen up to 5C above normal due to marine heatwaves, will also contribute to keeping land temperatures higher than average.
Snow unlikely this autumn
It is unlikely the UK will see any snowfall this autumn. It remains too early to predict if the coming winter will be especially cold or snowy. While El Niño years can enhance the chance of cold and snowy weather in late winter across north-west Europe, the UK's position on the edge of the Atlantic complicates this influence. Other meteorological factors can block the northerly or easterly winds needed to bring colder air. Historical data shows that since 1900, only one winter following a strong El Niño - 1982/83 - resulted in widespread disruptive snow.
