Hurricane Nolo Threatens Hawaii with Catastrophic Flooding

Hurricane Nolo is expected to bring potentially life-threatening and catastrophic flooding to Hawaii on Friday. The storm, a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds, began lashing the Big Island with its outer rainbands Friday evening.

A hurricane watch and tropical storm warning are in effect for Hawaii County. A hurricane watch means hurricane conditions are possible within 24 to 36 hours. The US National Hurricane Center warned the rainfall could produce catastrophic life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Tropical storm force winds reached the Big Island Friday afternoon, with hurricane force winds possible by late evening.

Forecasters say Nolo will still cause heavy rainfall, as much as 25 inches in some areas, even though it is not expected to make landfall. The storm's dangerous qualities are its slow movement and heavy rain. As of Friday afternoon, Nolo was moving at only 5 mph, about 145 miles south of the Big Island's South Point.

Forecast and Expected Impacts

Nolo is forecast to strengthen into a major hurricane, Category 3 or higher, in the Pacific Ocean over the weekend. On its current path, it will move slowly northward Friday night but remain south of the Big Island through Saturday. It will then turn westward and move away, increasing in speed Saturday into Sunday.

The heaviest rain is expected for eastern and southern parts of the Big Island and Maui. Forecasts predict 8 to 12 inches of rain there, with maximum amounts up to 16 inches. Western portions of the Big Island could see one to three inches, with maximum amounts of six inches. The rest of Hawaii will experience lesser totals, though isolated flooding is possible.

Large and damaging waves are expected along the coast. A high surf advisory is in effect for south and east facing shores of the Big Island and east facing shores of Maui and Molokai. Nolo could also spawn tornadoes and large waterspouts over and near the Big Island. A wind advisory has been issued for the rest of the state.

Emergency Preparations Underway

More than 230 Hawaii National Guard members were activated ahead of the storm. Schools were closed. Hawaii’s emergency management agency advised residents and visitors to review emergency plans, prepare for flooding and power outages, and consider evacuating to safer areas.

Hawaii Governor Josh Green requested an emergency disaster declaration for four counties earlier this week to access federal funds. On Friday, President Donald Trump approved the state’s request for an emergency declaration for Nolo.

Climate Context and Ongoing Recovery

The storm hits as remote communities are still recovering from extreme weather in recent months that destroyed homes, washed away roads, and left neighborhoods without power. Nolo is forecasted to bring the heaviest rain to an area hit hard by Hurricane Lala in August. Some people remain displaced from that storm.

This marks the third hurricane in less than two months to whip past Hawaii, following Lala and Lowell. The active Pacific hurricane season is likely due to a record-setting El Niño, a natural climate pattern that spawns more intense cyclones. Brian Schatz, a Hawaii senator, linked the increasing frequency of disasters to the climate crisis in remarks to Congress earlier this week.

Schatz said there is a reason these destructive disasters are piling up one after another, leaving communities exhausted and governments depleted. He urged the US to reduce pollution, increase clean energy, and help communities prepare for worsening disasters. South Point resident Tess Kala, who grew up in the area, and Naalehu resident Mark Peters, a seven-year resident, are among those bracing for the storm.

Troy Gacayan, a resident in the storm's path, captured the anxiety of repeated disasters. "We’re slowly starting to rebuild, but now it’s almost like if this storm hits, it’ll smash us back down."

Nolo will turn westward and move away from the island but increase in speed Saturday into Sunday.