Hawaii braces for Hurricane Nolo as El Niño fuels Pacific storms
Hurricane Nolo, a strengthening Category 2 storm, is approaching Hawaii's Big Island with threats of extreme rainfall and dangerous surf.
Hurricane Nolo is moving toward the Hawaiian archipelago as a strengthening Category 2 storm. The Big Island will see the worst impacts, with eight to 12 inches of rain possible in eastern and southern areas through Sunday, and up to 16 inches in the steepest terrain, according to the National Hurricane Center. Nolo threatens to unleash downpours that could measure in feet instead of inches.
Extreme rain is Nolo’s most serious threat, but it is also producing strong wind gusts and dangerous seas. Tropical storm-force winds stronger than 40 mph are likely in areas of steep terrain on Saturday, and hurricane-force gusts stronger than 75 mph cannot be ruled out. The storm's strongest winds will remain offshore as it passes well to the south.
Rainfall is expected to be significant but lower in other areas.
| Location | Expected Rainfall |
|---|---|
| Eastern & Southern Big Island | 8-12 inches (up to 16 inches in steepest terrain) |
| Western Big Island | Up to 6 inches |
| Eastern Maui | 4-6 inches (isolated amounts up to 8 inches) |
| Elsewhere on main islands | 1-3 inches |
Recent impacts and context
Hawaii is still recovering from Hurricane Lowell’s flooding and wind damage. Lowell struck Kauai and Niihau in early September as a Category 2 storm, flooding homes and roads, downing trees, and toppling electricity lines. More than 500 homes have been damaged or destroyed by tropical storms this year.
Emergency management officials are clearing debris and repairing infrastructure after Lowell while monitoring for the next storm. Hawaii Governor Josh Green declared a state of emergency, the third storm-related emergency declaration this month. State and county offices, public schools, and the University of Hawaii are closed on the Big Island and Maui.
Approximately 400 National Guard troops are positioned across the state, with 121 on the Big Island. County officials have opened shelters there, and Mayor Kimo Alameda advised residents in flood-prone areas to consider moving to safer shelter. The state has secured 100 hotel rooms for Big Island residents who wish to evacuate. Statewide, hundreds of people are still being housed in hotels after being displaced by earlier natural disasters, including hurricanes Lala and Lowell.
On Maui, officials have been preparing emergency generators and storm response equipment and increasing staffing at police and fire departments. Bus service will be suspended at different points through the weekend. Offshore, dangerous seas will build and reach their peak Friday and Saturday.
El Niño and climate drivers
Record El Niño conditions are warming Pacific waters, reducing wind shear, and steering storms toward Hawaii. El Niño typically limits hurricane activity in the Atlantic and enhances the development and strength of storms in the Pacific. The lack of Atlantic hurricanes is described as likely an effect of the record-setting El Niño.
Sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are exceptionally warm this year. Forecasters warn there is a high probability El Niño will reach historic intensity. It has caused hurricanes to form further to the south and west, putting them in a position to make a westward run toward the Hawaiian islands. September and October are far busier in El Niño years.
The climate crisis has strengthened storms by layering warming trends on top of El Niño effects. Dr Marc Alessi said, "The oceans are absorbing 92% of the excess heat to the climate system from the addition of heat-trapping pollutants to the atmosphere." The energy added to oceans over the last year is equivalent to roughly 12 Hiroshima bombs of heat released every second. This year’s super El Niño has helped prime the Pacific for strong tropical systems.
Historical perspective
Hawaii rarely sees direct hurricane landfalls due to its location and isolation across 1,500 miles of ocean. The state has not had a direct hurricane landfall since Iniki in 1992, which unleashed 145 mile-per-hour winds and destroyed or damaged roughly 70% of Kauai’s homes and businesses.
Recent storms have shown the region’s vulnerability to extreme rain. Hurricane Lala took a similarly close track to the Big Island in mid-August as a Category 1 storm. Its bands produced more than 40 inches of rain over the Big Island’s steep mountains, causing catastrophic flash flooding. The hurricane season is not over and there is still a long bit to go. For the next year, precipitation and weather extremes unlike anything seen before are expected.
Emergency management officials are clearing debris and repairing infrastructure after Lowell while monitoring for the next storm.
