Atlantic Hurricane Season Sets Record for Latest First Storm

Tropical Storm Fay formed southwest of the Azores on the morning of September 20, 2026. According to Yale Climate Connections, its top sustained winds had reached 60 mph by 11 a.m. EDT that day.

Fay is a compact storm, a characteristic that could allow for rapid changes in intensity. With favorable upper-level conditions expected, forecasters say it could briefly attain hurricane strength late on September 20 or on September 21. If it does, it would become the first Atlantic hurricane of the 2026 season.

System Development and Forecast

The system was initially designated Tropical Depression Six on September 19. The National Hurricane Center forecast it to meander before potentially moving southwest. The storm is positioned between two areas of strong wind shear. A high-pressure system to the north is expected to block movement toward the Azores and eventually steer the cyclone southwest over open ocean.

Meteorological models disagree on the system's lifespan. The European model suggests it could persist for five days, while the American GFS model predicts dissipation by the middle of the week. All forecasts agree the storm will remain over open water, posing no threat to land.

A Record-Quiet Atlantic Season

The formation of Fay does not change the historically quiet nature of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. The basin has produced only five named storms, and none have reached hurricane strength. This sets a new modern-era record, as satellites have never observed a first hurricane forming this late in the season since their introduction in 1966.

By this date in an average season, the Atlantic would typically have seen four hurricanes and two major hurricanes. The season's accumulated cyclone energy, a measure of storm intensity and duration, is 4.4, which is 94% below normal. The strongest systems so far have been Tropical Storms Bertha and Edward, each with peak winds of 60 mph.

Only two years on record, 1907 and 1914, are known to have had zero hurricanes, though the lack of satellite data for those eras means certainty is impossible.

Active Pacific Contrast

While the Atlantic has been quiet, the eastern and central Pacific basins have been exceptionally active. As of September 19, no named systems were present, but two areas had a high chance of development.

Invest 99E has an 80% chance of becoming a tropical depression and could impact the west-central coast of Mexico. Models indicate it may become a hurricane by mid-week. Another system, Invest 98E, is located over 1,000 miles south of Baja California and is not expected to affect land.

Seasonal activity in the Pacific far exceeds the norm. The eastern Pacific has recorded 16 named storms, six hurricanes, and four major hurricanes, with accumulated cyclone energy running 77% above average. The strongest storm was Category 5 Hurricane Genevieve, with winds of 160 mph.

The central Pacific region has also been active, with several systems impacting the Hawaiian Islands. Its accumulated cyclone energy is 76.7, and four hurricanes, including two major hurricanes, have tracked through the basin this season.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson contributed to the source report from Yale Climate Connections.